Investigating the Impact of Non-Renewable Energy Consumption on Iran's Ecological Resilience Using an ARDL Model
Subject Areas : محیط زیست و انرژی
Amirmansour Tehranchian
1
*
,
Shahryar Zaroki
2
,
Seyedeh Mahsa Khabbaz
3
1 - Professor, Department of Economics, Faculty of Economic and Administrative Sciences, University of Mazandaran, Babolsar, Iran
2 - Associate Professor, Department of Energy Economics, Faculty of Economic and Administrative Sciences, University of Mazandaran, Babolsar, Iran
3 - PhD student in Economic Sciences, Faculty of Economic and Administrative Sciences, University of Mazandaran, Babolsar, Iran
Keywords: Energy consumption, Ecological resilience, ARDL model, Non-renewable energies,
Abstract :
This study evaluates the impacts of non-renewable energy consumption on the ecological resilience of Iran over the period 1965- 2023, utilizing ARDL approach. The results indicated that in the long run, a coefficient of 2.763 signifies an increase in CO₂ emissions, thereby weakening ecological resilience; conversely, in the short run, a coefficient of -0.227 suggests a temporary reduction in carbon emissions and a relative improvement in resilience, an effect that will not be sustained in the absence of institutional and technological infrastructure. By integrating both short- and long-term time horizons and relying on extensive historical data, this study provides a comprehensive overview of the dynamics between fossil fuel energy consumption and environmental sustainability in Iran. Also, the findings indicated that structural dependence on non-renewable energy sources not only hinders the enhancement of resilience but also constitutes a long-term threat to ecological sustainability. Accordingly, the research findings highlight the necessity of gradually diversifying the energy portfolio by prioritizing renewable resources, the phased reform of fossil fuel subsidies along with the design of effective compensatory mechanisms for vulnerable groups, and targeted investment in clean technologies and green infrastructure. Furthermore, establishing an integrated governance framework in the energy and environmental sectors and incorporating environmental considerations into national development policies can facilitate Iran's transition to a low-carbon and resilient economy.
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